July 10, 2003
--
PRESIDENT Bush consistently has
done the right thing by ignoring the nay- sayers
before, during and after Operation Iraqi Freedom. Yet
he's in danger of making the same mistake his father
did at the end of Desert Storm - doing only half the
job.
Just as the failure to press on to
Baghdad in 1991 left Iraq and the entire region with
cancerous problems, today's failure to recognize the
artificial, unjust nature of the Iraqi state promises
enduring discontent.
Will American troops need to return
to Iraq a third time, in another decade?
Speaking of Iraq as a single,
integrated country is a form of lying. Its borders
were drawn by grasping European diplomats almost a
century ago, with no regard for the wishes - or
rivalries - of the local populations.
Today, the Iraq we're trying to herd
back together consists of three distinct nations caged
under a single, bloodstained flag. Our problems are
with only one of those nations, the Sunni Arab
minority west and north of Baghdad.
Favored by the British, the Sunni
Arabs took power at Iraq's formation and maintained it
through massacre, torture and imprisonment. Saddam
Hussein was the ultimate expression of Sunni Arab
tyranny over Iraq's Kurds and Shi'ites.
By holding Iraq together with U.S.
troops, we merely encourage the Sunni Arabs - who
remain hostile to our presence, whose extremists
attack our soldiers and who still intend to recapture
control of the entire country.
We are punishing our friends,
rewarding our enemies and alienating the neutral.
President Bush needs to perform radical surgery on
Iraq now, while the world remains in a funk
over our success. We still have a window through which
we can thrust major reforms. But the window is
closing. Defending the status quo is deadly folly.
The break-up of Iraq should proceed
in two stages.
First, we should provisionally
divide the country into a federation of three states,
giving the Sunni Arabs one last chance to embrace
reform.
* One state would encompass the
Shi'ite region in the south, encompassing all of the
southern oil fields.
* The second would be an expanded
Kurdistan, including historically Kurdish Kirkuk and
Mosul, as well as Iraq's northern oil fields.
* The third would be a rump Sunni
Arab state sandwiched between the other two.
* Baghdad would become an autonomous
district.
Stop worrying about Shi'ite
extremism. If we mean what we say about democracy, the
Shi'ites should be free to choose whomever they want
as their leaders - even fundamentalists. Although the
odds of theocratic rule emerging or enduring in
southern Iraq are lower than the media imply, the
Shi'ites, who long have been oppressed and persecuted,
should be free to determine their own future.
Democracy means letting people make
their own mistakes. We've made a few ourselves. The
only thing upon which we should insist is strict
supervision to ensure an honest vote.
We must, however, make it clear to
Iran that meddling will not be tolerated.
As this column consistently points
out, the Kurds deserve freedom and a state of their
own. After the Jews and Armenians, they have been the
most persecuted ethnic group of the last hundred
years, always denied an independent homeland, shot,
gassed, driven from their homes - and even victimized
for the use of their native dialects. The world's
willingness to look away from the long tragedy of the
Kurdish people is inexcusable.
And consider how strategically
helpful a Kurdish state, reliant on U.S. military
guarantees, might be. If the Kurdish people agreed to
host our forces, we could abandon our bases in Turkey,
the use of which has been restricted almost to
worthlessness. New airbases amid a welcoming
population would be quite a change in the region. Even
the Saudis and the Gulf Arabs would be on notice.
And what about Turkey? Our
"long-time ally"?
I have no personal grudge against
Turkey. On the contrary, I've visited the country many
times and even took my wife there on our honeymoon.
Istanbul remains one of my favorite cities. I've
argued for years that Turkey was a vital ally.
But times change. Turkish treachery
on the eve of our recent war cannot be overlooked.
Startled by the swiftness of our
victory, the Turks immediately assured us that it was
all a minor misunderstanding, that Turkey wished to
remain the best of friends. Yet Turkey is again
becoming the "sick man of Europe," plagued by
ineradicable corruption, growing Islamic radicalism
and a self-destructive military.
The result of our renewed
friendship? Last week, U.S. forces had to break up a
secret Turkish military operation in northern Iraq,
arresting a dozen of Ankara's special operations
troops. The Turkish mission? To assassinate the senior
Kurdish leader in Kirkuk. His crime? Cooperating with
the Americans.
The Turkish chief of staff, Gen.
Ozkok, threw a public tantrum, insisting that we had
created a grave crisis by busting his assassins.
Sorry, pal. You created the crisis. And you
just blew any chance you and your government had of
rebuilding bridges to Washington that will bear any
real weight.
The Turkish military's scheme to
undercut our occupation underscores the need for the
Bush administration to stop thinking small when it
comes to nation-building. Instead of just changing the
oil in the old jalopy, it's time for a fleet of new
cars. An independent Kurdistan should roll off the
assembly line first.
The second stage of the division of
Iraq would kick in if the Sunni Arabs still refuse to
cooperate: We would declare the interim Iraqi
Federation dissolved, creating three fully independent
states in its place, with the Kurdish and Shi'ite
states meeting along the Iranian border to guarantee
the Kurds a corridor to the sea for their oil, gas and
trade.
Then leave the Sunni Arabs to rot.
Oh, and there just might be a third
step down the road, too. We should not miss any
opportunity to support the longing for freedom of the
tens of millions of Kurds held hostage behind
European-imposed borders in Turkey, Syria and Iran.
For Americans serious about human rights and freedom,
Greater Kurdistan must be a long-range goal.
Military operations alone cannot
change the Middle East. The European legacy of phony
borders must be demolished, starting in Iraq. Don't
betray our troops again by leaving the job unfinished
to please our enemies.
Ralph Peters is a retired Army
officer and the author of "Beyond Terror: Strategy in
a Changing World."
